g’day,
experimenting with a new style of youtube vid this week, more raw and from the hip, check it out:
a few weeks ago i wrote about a lunch that rattled me.
i left worried about 20% unemployment in australia within 3-5 years.
this week, i’ve got a sore neck from whiplash.
i saw some data this week that i wasn't expecting (thanks, mark).
software engineering jobs are trending back up:
this is a narrative violation.
everyone thought software engineering jobs were toast in the AI epoch.
that engineers were the canary in the coalmine of mass job-loss;
the originators of their own demise.
but jevon’s paradox is rearing it’s head. it originally predicted that more efficient technology increases consumption.
more efficient steam engines actually increased demand for coal because people use them more.
and today:
companies can afford to take on software projects that they wouldn’t have been able to tackle before, because they have AI.
take your whitepills, everyone.
the blurry edges of the future are beginning to emerge.
it appears more people will become software engineers (or descendants of that lineage).
and more businesses will deploy code, that previously didn’t or couldn’t.
everyone gets to be an engineer (oprah.jpg)
so what does it mean for you, and your next job?
my position hasn’t changed since last year.
sure, there will be vibe coders and prompt engineers.
but nothing will beat a skilled and knowledgable engineer, who knows computers down to the bare metal – electrical engineering, chips, logic gates, machine code, and up.
if you're early in your career: learn how the machine works, not just how to talk to it.
if you're mid-career and your role feels increasingly automatable: start learning the tools.
the doomers may get the short term right. they'll get the long term wrong.
humans always find a way.
charlie
ps: appropriately, i am hiring a founding engineer for a new company i am starting. please apply or share with engineering friends (link to job description)
